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film news

Thursty's Stinky Box Office Actuals: Disappointing Thunder God Performance Edition

Posted by Thurston McQ on Monday, May 9, 2011

The actuals are in, and they're a bit of a disappointment. Sunday estimates had us primed for a poorer performance for Thor than most box office forecasters (including yours truly) had predicted, but the actuals ended up being even lower than the estimates. The estimates suggested Thor would be making 66 million. Most of us were hoping that was a little low, and that Thor might be making somewhere closer to 70 million. Unfortunately, that was not the case. It ended up with 65.7 million.

That's not a bad opening weekend by any means. Since Thor's first weekend was the first weekend in May, though, people were looking forward to it setting a good pace for the rest of the summer blockbusters. Its under-performance may be taken by some to be a bad omen. The movie itself has strong word of mouth and has been generally well-reviewed by critics, so it doesn't have to be the end of the road for it. Repeat business is a possibility, as is a strong second weekend. Priest and Bridesmaids (another wedding movie?) are the only major releases this weekend, and Priest is the only one that will be competing for the same audience. With any luck, Thor might make 60 percent of its May 6-8 gross this weekend. This is probably wishful thinking. With an opening weekend under 70 million, its chances of crossing the 200 million mark by the end of the summer are slim. Even though it could still eke it out, a more reasonable guess for its final domestic theatrical gross would be in the 150-180 million range. Avengers fever could help give it a boost later in the summer when Captain America arrives, but it will have been out so long at that point that a big boost is unlikely.

The rest of the movies performed more or less exactly how they were expected to perform, with one exception: Jumping the Broom exceeded expectations. It ended up outperforming Something Borrowed by about 1.3 million.

Weekend Actuals:

1. Thor   $65.72m
2. Fast Five     $32.45m
3. Jumping the Broom     $15.22m
4. Something Borrowed   $13.95m
5. Rio   $8.5m
6. Water for Elephants   $6.07m
7. Madea Eats Children   $4.18m
8. Soul Surfer   $2.31m
9. Prom    $2.21m
10. Hoodwinked Too   $2.04m

To revisit my predictions for the May 6-8 weekend, go here.

Daltons chin dimple
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Posts: 12800
Posted: 9 years 13 weeks ago

Is it because audiences had it pegged a "Fantasy" rather than "Superhero" and any attempts to ride the LOTR and Harry Potter fantasy coat-tails have ended badly eg. The Golden Compass???

....says "Kill Bond, NOW!"