Corona | Coming Attractions

This weekend could be a big weekend, but it probably won't be as big a weekend as people want it to be.  Tron: Legacy, Yogi Bear, and How Do You Know are all making their debuts, but they will be joined by a major expansion for The Fighter and a near-major expansion (that is, just under 1,000 screens) for Black Swan.

To the average film site frequenter, it probably seems like the Tron sequel is positioned to become a huge hit.  This is not necessarily the case. If the tracking numbers put out by Reuters at the end of last month are any indication, in fact, Disney could be losing some money.  They've pumped a lot into what they clearly hope to be a franchise, and if they don't make at least fifty million this weekend, their chances of making much of that back are unlikely.  Whatever the case, those who hoped Tron: Legacy would be this year's answer to Avatar are likely to be disappointed.  It could still have a solid debut, but there's no reason to think we'll have to reorder the all time top ten to make way for its arrival.

Yogi Bear, on the other hand, will be cutting a fiery swath as it incinerates every box office record in its path.  People have been waiting for this movie since 1958, and reports of fatal moshes and five-mile long lines wrapping around cinemaplexes are becoming increasingly common.

No.

Yogi Bear will be lucky to make twenty million this week.  Kids may want to see it, but most of their parents will still be wondering why it was even made long after the end credits have rolled.  Resist the temptation to look at the box office of 2002's Scooby-Doo (or either of the Chipmunks movies, for that matter) for inspiration when figuring out how Yogi Bear will fare, Dear Reader, for such folly can only bring sorrow into your life.  There are plenty of other family films for parents to take their kids to this weekend, and Yogi Bear will have to fight to get the business it gets.  Expect an opening weekend gross closer to, but exceeding, Marmaduke's.  Expect a Garfield-like (c. 20 million) opening weekend.

Back in December of 1997, James L. Brooks and Jack Nicholson managed to make decent money with the never-a-number-one-hit As Good as It Gets.  They managed this because it struck many people as the anti-Titanic.  That was an unlucky thirteen years ago, though, and there's little chance of How Do You Know leeching Titanic-like business off of Tron: Legacy.

The Fighter and Black Swan will make good on their expansions, though The Fighter has more room for a bigger box office.  It's Mark Wahlberg and Batman, it's feel good, it has its subjects' seals of approval, it's generating awards talk, it's adding way more screens than Black Swan, and itsappeal reaches beyond the art house crowd.  That said, Black Swan has surprised two weekends in a row.

My predictions:

1.  Tron Legacy  $51.25m
2.  Yogi Bear  $19.75m
3.  The Fighter  $12.75m
4.  Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader  $10.50m
5.  How Do You Know  $10.25m
6.  Tangled  $8.50m
7.  Black Swan  $7.50m
8.  The Tourist  $7.25m
9.  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 $4.25m
10.  Unstoppable  $2.50m

Disagree?  Let me know by 11:59 EST Friday night.  If your predictions come closer than mine to the actual weekend grosses, I will celebrate your superior skills in the Grovel Pit.